Easter Covid-19 Thoughts

Happy Easter!  One of the holiest days of the year will be this Sunday April 12th.  Church services are now online and we are not allowed to worship in person due to Covid-19.  Family gatherings for the most part have been cancelled and lives have been turned upside down.  Even though we are not allowed to worship in free physical assembly we will still practice in spirit.   One must not forget our First Amendment rights of Freedom of Religion and Assembly as stated by the United States Constitution during this crisis.
In writing my columns I try to look at the economic implications of political decisions.  I have studied economics and the economy both nationally and world wide since I was in High School.  I have taught Economics and Business classes for thirty eight years now and have seen and taught about many economic crises in the classroom during that time frame.  A consistent theme that I have seen in these different crises has been the intervention by our government in trying to create a positive outcome to the economic issue.  Worldwide free governments also try to do the same.  Each time government tries to influence the free market system that we have in our economy we see usually poor results.  For those who can remember the "energy crisis" of 1973-74, we saw several different unsuccessful programs implemented to try to end the crisis.  The net result of those price controls, limiting how much gas you could buy at one time and the suppression of the normal laws of supply and demand helped to prolong the crisis at that time.  We saw a similar problem with the "energy crisis" of 1979-80 also due to government policies.  In 2020 we have had little to no supply issues with regards to energy and relatively stable prices with the exception of high electric prices here in Connecticut and California due to these states regulations causing prices to escalate well beyond the national average.
The "housing/mortgage/financial crisis" of 2008-09 was also a similar situation with massive government interventions.  Mortgage derivatives were created that bundled mortgages with different rates of return and risk.  Our government wanted those who could not afford houses to buy them thus creating buyers programs for that group of people.  Poor mortgage decisions were made, housing prices bubbled and the net result was a massive downturn in our economy.
In 2020 we now face another economic crisis due to the Covid-19 virus as our economy has literally been shut down.  Connecticut has been especially hard hit with over 300,000 unemployment claims being filed over the past three weeks.  With Governor Lamont's new executive order shutting Connecticut down until May 20th now, more claims will be filed. Who will pay for these unemployed workers benefits?  Federal monies will pay for some of the claims however it will not be enough.  What is the plan to fund these claims?
Businesses that have been ordered shut down by the state have been offered several limited funding plans both on a state and federal level.  Some of the bridge loans will be forgiven other loans will have little or no interest charged on them.  This is a stop gap measure to keep them operational until they are allowed to open again.  The volume of those applying for these loans has overwhelmed the state system and caused delays in the loan process.
For those who pay property taxes in the state they are now offered a 90 day extension to pay them at a 3% rate of interest.  It will still be very difficult for businesses to pay property taxes and or any other taxes either with these loans and with no revenues coming in. 
There are many other state mandates that will have economic implications in the long run such as delays in rent payments, mortgage payments, loan and tax payments.  Connecticut's economy took the longest to supposedly come out of the last recession (and was not fully recovered either) and it will take even longer to come out of this crisis.  It will take longer due to the high tax burden that we have in the state along with the massive governmental regulations that has been imposed on businesses here in Connecticut.
Our elected state officials daily tell us of new economic help programs and new regulations that have been imposed on us to stop the spread of Covid-19.  Even though it seems like certain parts of our state have not been impacted as much as Fairfield and New Haven counties the entire state must follow these shutdowns.  We are also seeing a leveling off of cases and deaths which is great.  The question still remains is what and how will Connecticut reopen its economy?  Connecticut's economy is valued at roughly $275 billion dollars yearly with a massive state debt to Gross Domestic Product ratio of 19.5%.  Connecticut's short and long term debt along with unfunded liabilities is in excess of $140 billion dollars.  If more than have of the states businesses close for good due to this crisis our state economy value will drop to roughly $140 billion dollars or less in my opinion.  The drop will cause tax revenues to decline, a massive job loss creating high unemployment rates possibly of 20% or more and enormous debt/bankruptcies to occur.  In my opinion this is what needs to be addressed immediately through a non partisan non government task force to plan how to open the state's economy as fast as possible and as safely as possible.
State Commissioners and officials have not offered and or discussed any cuts in their salaries and benefits or any cuts in state budgets during this crisis.  Connecticut state unions are scheduled to get a 3.5% pay increase on July 1, no word as to suspending this raise due to our economic crisis.  I wonder how the state will pay for these raises with a massive loss of tax revenues?  I wonder how much the state budget deficit will be for Fiscal year 2019-2020?  2 to 4 billion dollars or more?  Is there a concept of shared sacrifice in our state government when it comes to an economic crisis?
I personally do not take lightly the 448 state residents who died as of today (4/11) from Covid-19.  Nor do I take lightly the 1200 state residents (including a family member) who died in 2019 from drug overdoses.   I also understand the nature of this fast moving virus is different than drug overdoses however I really wonder if Connecticut really had any type of plan for a state wide health emergency like this?  Does Connecticut have a plan for a war/nuclear attack type of emergency?  Why has Connecticut's Commissioner of Public Health not been in the forefront of this health crisis rather than being unseen, unheard and unquoted?  Where is her guidance and leadership in this crisis?  Are the statistics being used to report the cases and deaths accurate?  Or are they skewed to increase federal funding?
I wonder if Connecticut will have a Commission created to investigate how this health crisis was handled?
Hopefully this health crisis will be over soon.  And hopefully one day Connecticut will be a right-to-work state with less or no debt, less state union influence, a two party system that has checks and balances, a state government that is not filled with political nepotism, a state government that follows the state constitution and a vibrant business environment.  I just wonder if this will happen in my lifetime?